算命和占卜,怎樣選擇?之二 cover
Let me give you a real example. Back when Hong Kong people were still very interested in the Miss Hong Kong pageant, for several years people would ask famous fortune tellers: "Will a certain popular contestant win the crown (or be in the top three)?" At the time, I thought: Fortune telling? Are you mistaken? A skilled fortune teller can certainly predict whether a person is in good form during the pageant, even on the day of the competition; whether they are popular with the audience; whether they have influential connections; and even, if they make it into the top three, whether they will marry into a wealthy family. Yes, these are all relevant and quite accurate, and they do influence the outcome. The problem is that the level of beauty pageant contestants fluctuates from year to year, making it impossible to predict. Fortune telling cannot predict how many strong competitors you will have this time, or even if you are at your best, you might not be qualified to compete with that particular contestant. If a fortune teller spent an afternoon closely observing the contestants at the rehearsal venue, standing aside to read their faces, complexions, and body language, and comparing their observations, they could make a much more accurate prediction! Let's assume that the long rehearsals have fixed everyone's performance level within a certain range. And whether a performance is brilliant or lacking isn't crucial to making it into the top three. There's also an unpredictable factor: the judges' subjective opinions. Who knows whether a certain style is beautiful, intellectual, noble, charming, or cute—which type of beauty the judges prefer? Therefore, in any "competition" situation, consulting fortune tellers is useless. Divination is far more reliable!

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